Since the beginning of the year, the packaging paper market has risen more than one wave. As it turned out, the downstream orders were surprisingly clean, and the secondary packaging companies tightened their pockets, and the paper mills' price hikes to inventory did not succeed.
After more than a month of long and short confrontation, the time has come to a year before the cliff-breaking season. It never repeats the same mistakes made by the paper mills that once again tried to increase the price by using the abolition of the country. If it rises, it will miss the opportunity to make money; if it falls, it will be too late. At this moment, the enveloping enterprises are tangled up.
So, what exactly does the packaging and printing industry think about the current paper price?
For this reason, Xiao Bian collected some representative views from the cardboard industry and the carton industry, which are both bullish and bearish. Whether it is right or wrong, they are listed first for your reference.
Sing many points:
The general view: At present, the packaging industry has a high degree of productivity, and the price of paper is basically the final say. At present, there are signals from the giants that the prices have risen.
Industry insiders: This price increase is under the urging of the national environmental protection policy, and once again the "labor pain" of the transformation and upgrading of the paper product industry. In recent years, China has constantly increased the efforts to renovate environmental protection. Many small, backward-looking paper mills operating at low cost have already been eliminated. The standardization of production of paper-based enterprises by scale has indeed brought about cost increases. Especially during this period after the Spring Festival, the major paper companies will enter the daily shutdown maintenance season, further shrinking production capacity and aggravating the market's supply and demand tension. Rising raw material prices, coupled with the shortage of supply in the market, gave birth to this surge in prices.
Cardboard factory owner: I think paper prices will not fall. 2017 has been crazy. There is enough money to play with us. And win.
Bystanders: In the previous year, the Central Bank considered supporting large-scale domestic enterprises. The paper increased credit and consciously speculated that paper prices would increase corporate profits and return funds. Forcing small paper companies to withdraw from competition is also in line with environmental protection policies. In addition, the environmental tax will increase in April. These are all likely drivers of price increases.
People in the paper industry: China's import quota management system for waste paper has also increased the supply of raw materials for commercial paper. From the list of the seven approved waste paper import license companies that have been announced by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the three paper companies including Xiaolong, Liwen and Shanying have been approved to import a total of 56% of the approved total. It can be seen that the industry's brand concentration is increasing, and the scale paper mills will increasingly have “speech rights” in product pricing.
Singing empty point of view:
The macroeconomic policy stated that Tung Kung Kee continued to be hot and the 3rd and 4th floors of the property market would be deleveraging in 2017, causing heavy losses to consumers. In the trade dispute between China and the United States, the government's de-leveraging of personal and corporate debts and the raising of interest rates in the United States will affect the demand for packaging paper. In the current situation of oversupply of wrapping paper, there is a lack of motivation to continue pushing up.
The paper mill division said: Now that there is an abacus between the big paper mill and the small and medium-sized paper mills, when Xiaolong suddenly raised the national waste at RMB 160 on March 10th, the small and medium-sized paper mills immediately lowered their prices, demonstrating that the two sides are in a tight confrontation. status. If the big manufacturers take the lead in price increases, the small and medium-sized paper mills may take the opportunity to ship and fill in the low inventory of the second-tier plant, causing the large paper mills to face greater pressure. Generally speaking, it is impossible to implement price increases and continue to push upwards until there are a large number of transactions.
Conspiracy theorists: I would like to have a big fish to eat small fish. There is only one way to reduce the price and let the small fish become shrimp. The gap between foreign waste and national waste is large, the profits of big manufacturers are high, and those of small factories are low. If I were X Dragon, I would also increase the national waste purchase price. In any case, the national waste ratio is not large, and the average national waste is spent and made large.
Insufficient demand theory: Nowadays, due to paper price increases, customers have switched to bubble bags and courier bags. The three months of this year and the end of the year are peak seasons, and orders are halved this year. Before it was capacity reduction, it was now ramping up to increase production capacity. There will be a robbery at the very end of the event and there will be a looting at every eight.
The terminal forced to say: This round is a terminal client cattle, die not to increase prices. Terminal customers are also fighting price wars, prices cannot be transmitted to customers, and terminals do not rise and we quit. Would rather not take orders or buy high-priced paper, who will do a loss business?