Analysis and Forecast of China's Paper Price Trend in 2018

- Mar 22, 2018-

Coated and cultural paper prices have risen sharply since the end of 2016, both of which increased by 40% in 2017. The price of double-tape paper at the end of 2017 reached a maximum of 7,875 yuan/ton, an increase of 40% compared with the end of last year. The price trend of coated paper is similar to that of offset paper. It stayed at around RMB 5,400/t for a long period of time in 2016. Prices at the end of the year rose, rising to RMB 6,900/t in mid-2017, and rising to RMB 7,600/t at the end of 2017. At the end of last year, the increase also reached 40%.

The logic of rising paper prices is that after the industry's production capacity is over-competitive, social demand has not changed and the industry has contracted. Since 2012, China’s consumption of coated paper and offset paper has not grown much, and the industry’s new production capacity is low. On the other hand, as the national capacity for production and environmental protection policies became stricter, the supply capacity was reduced. Excessive competition: During 2009-2011, the production capacity of coated paper increased from 5 million tons to 6.71 million tons, with a compound growth rate of 16%. From 2011 to 2015, the production capacity was released, and the profitability of papermaking companies fell. Some companies gradually withdrew. Between 2011 and 2015, the output of coated paper from China decreased from 6.71 million tons to 5.49 million tons, and the production capacity of coated paper decreased from 7.99 million tons to 6.95 million. Ton. "De-capacity + environmental protection" policy. Since 2010, the entire papermaking industry has started to remove capacity, and by the end of 2015, it has cleared 39.72 million tons of capacity. In 2016, the paper consumption was only broken by 10,000 tons. In 2017, a number of environmental protection policies will be intensively introduced and will be implemented in 2018. It is estimated that the impact of capacity reduction and environmental protection policies on the paper industry will continue. And paper prices are expected to hover at high levels.